Tuesday, January 31, 2006

Chartered (C27) Updated

Since my last posting on the 9th instant, the chart had indeed followed the path of the Scenarios 1-2-3 as predicted. Of course in reality, it was not a smooth sailing towards the anticipated TP 0f $1.49. In between a Sine wave was formed. I believed the more nervous one has been wiped out since then. On the big picture a single bottom and a rising wedge were formed. The new support level now is $1.38. We shall see the materialization of the TP soon. Expectedly, we may encounter whipsaws along the way. As I am writing, my other screen showed Chartered USA at US$8.36 down by 0.16. With the breakout on high volume outside the regression channel , a good +ve result and its product highly demanded in the consumer sector, Chatered should perform well!

Thursday, January 26, 2006

My Market, My Picks!

Traditionally, UTAC is a stock akin to "Buy on Rumor and Sell on News". I'm
glad this time is different. Perhaps, the margin of profit widened now. Statschp,
the Ugly Duckling that I brave against the Trend and TAs and brought it; turned out to be a "Prince Swan"! According to Netresearch, Statchp Cash Flow is still red ,yet today's performance was commendable. This means more upside can be expected. Chart also looks better and encouraging.

As I cautioned yesterday, Cosco was down 2 cents. My new found love, SingTel
turned "sexy" and did not fail me today. A good 6 cents up. In fact, intraday
limit was 8 cents. SingTel is a stock that I really like and vested in and out
a couple times already.

Off track abit, to be successful in Singapore Market, we have to take a certain
amount of risk; for instant, if we will to wait for confirmation of uptrend,
we are already too late! And if you watch carefully, buying on most Breakouts
are often met with Dead on Arrival (DOA); even in high volume environment. Meaning
a step too late, and often has to "hold baby" after purchased. Trading
cannot be played with a prefectly sure endeavour, for instance, to buy SingTel
at $2.47, we reckon that is too risky. Now at $2.53, we say that is too expensive,
price too high now so to speak! So, so, you see the logic?

Tomorrow, I shall not expect any huge movement as the weaker hands will take
the chip off the table prior to the Holiday and enjoy their Chinese New year.
This is understandable! After the holiday, Tech and Oil related company can
still have a go for some profit. In far term, surely, other sector will rein.
You will notice that I am a bit "long-winded" on this sector thing. Why? As
simple as this: "If You are in the right sector, the probability of winning
is great, and you WIN!" Surely, this is what we are here for! Right?

Wednesday, January 25, 2006

Reviewing My Picks

It’s time to elaborate on my picks. Tech and China stocks have done well. In particular, UTAC is a star performance . Beauty China already exceeded my TP and Cosco also doing well.
Statschpac and Chartered done well today. To be on the safe side, caution must be accorded to Statchp’s tomorrow morning earning report. Quick action must be taken in line with the whim and fancy of the Analyst. Also Cosco today's last minute huge selling must be monitored carefully as the price had factored in new contract signed. MMI and HuanHsin should continue to do well. I like SingTel and include it in my new pick.Why? I don't want to miss the anticipated Cash payout and good dividend. Even, the share should go down, it will be propped up by its good dividend and its remarkable reputation! Evidenced from today, Market is still directionless and in view of many holidays to come, it is inevitable that some profit-takings around the corner must be factored in. In doubt, don’t enter trade, in fear don’t dump share emotionally. Therefore, it is also safe to maintain a plan and Target price, and only take what the market can give!

Stats-chippac-is-expected-to-report tomorrow morning

Merrill Lynch said it expects the company to guide a "mid
single-digit sales decline" in the first quarter.
"Our channel checks suggest 3G handset chips could remain strong
during the first quarterof 2006 while PC, wireline and consumer could
experience a seasonal correction," Merrill Lynch said.
Three brokerages forecasts STATS ChipPAC to report a net profit
of between 38-71 mln usd this year.For Detail Click Here

Huan Hsin (H16) as Requested

Huan Hsin is now in oversold condition. OBV showed danger of crossing its own trend line. However, hope is evidenced in ADX down with D-ve in tandem. This means downtrend mellowed. The CCI @ -121 and tilting up confirmed the inevitable ending of near time downtrend. Also the price is now edging the 45 Day MA and 38.2% retractment. This signifies good near term upside. Fundamentally, analyst screaming good fortune ahead of Hardisk sector’s good potential earning due to its “hotting –up” of usage in consumer product. This stock is still in the process of unwinding its expected good performance.

Tuesday, January 24, 2006

STI - What's Next?

Yesterday, as expected, selling was across the board.. However, it was not as severe as I‘ve imagined! With USA on very unstable footing, oil up,Japan down 300 pts again, commotion in the Middle East and etc. it would not be sensible now to be aggressive in the market, that is, as far as I’m concern. As many had said, this market is now for the “lion heart” only. All is not the end yet, the Business Times is yelling SemiConductor recovery and the Hard Disk Company’s glory and good results, in particular, the outstanding Seagate. Since Singapore Economy is doing well, Banks will definitely benefit from it. In sum, selective bargaining (DBS View ) still can be sought after, but with eyes on screen! As I’m writing Dow is up 35.14 and NASDAQ 2.11 respectively. Chartered and Statchpac had managed in +ve territory. A peek at the on STI Chart showed a bearish tone.My favourable Picks list is still maintained! Today shall be better, but it is better to be careful and trade with caution and patience!

Saturday, January 21, 2006

USA - Beware - Dow & Nasdaq down - Friday

Dow down 213.32, Nasdaq down 54.11,Singapore Tech as above.For

SingTel (T48) - Buying for a Song!

I like the Oversold condition. A Double Bottom is set to complete its cycle. The Candlestick already had halted its descend and the prior spinning top was replaced by a bullish one of different color. The CCI  Tilted up towards -100, and was perfectly matched by the RSI of reversed curl up at 36  As with the Price chart the RSI has its higher lower in comparison with its prior low. This confirmed the Candlestick signal and formed impetus to propel upwards. The 61.8% retractment is telling us a reversal northwards is a very good probability. So the Supports stand as 2.42 and 2.33; can be taken as Immediate and Secondary Support respectively. Immediate Resistance 2.58. And when broken, TP of 2.62 can be realized. Cut loss at the Immediate Support of 2.42. For comparison, other view included. My humble hunch is that we are buying The Singing “Telcom”: with a Song! Furthermore, buying now means capitalizing on the good Telcom environment. M1 and StarHub have been “hotting up” in recent trading periods.

Thursday, January 19, 2006

STI - A Tango Dance!

Just as Everyone expected today to be groomy, it rebounced with a Vengeance.
There was even one confidence eroding guy, posted a CNA Forum's thread yesterday
that China play was over, just because he is going on holiday. Indeed, a bad
& Cruel
Guy-(it pays to read Donkey in the well when you are free)
with purpose to effect panic selling. I really pitied those weak hands &
Itchy front siders, whom may lost a fortune by his cruel words. Caution aside, today
China Plays and Tech rebounced. It was like a Tango dance: two steps forward
and one step back. I really doubted people has benefited. All Market has taken
in 2 days was returned today. With
an Uncertain USA still at the back of our head, the following few days can be
quite unstable. For other view, click here:!
. Also SemiConductor
-Morgan Stanley Report

The logic of 1-2-3 scenario
still follows. Except, that the timing was put forwarded by the 2nd largest
exchange commotion. Buy on support 2350 and sell on 2380 and the rest is in Last Posting on STI 15-Jan-2006

Wednesday, January 18, 2006

STI - Blood on the Street!

Today another sell off day. STI closed 2359 on High volume. Trend line was broken as the chart. It's better to be cautious. Based on the chart with many TA indicators being bearish, tomorrow can be another bad day!

Tuesday, January 17, 2006

STI - Too Good to be True!

As we were saying, I expected STI to be 2380pt today, it is 2377pt. I don't like the way the market was performing. It was all sunny, that sudden downpours within 2 hours in the afternoon. Cause was Nikkei down 457 pts a hefty 2.8%. All the neighbouring areas were not spared. Of the greatest hit were the Red Chip, the China Share. The immediate support was broken and tomorrow is the crucial& deciding direction. Let's see!

Monday, January 16, 2006

STI - What we thought will happen, happened!

As discussed STI down and tomorrow expect another down day. Hope its intraday can provides opportunity for some mild accumulation. Chartered has performed well,and I think many gutty heroes had a go with it intraday wise! In a down market today, Cosco remained flat. It's a sign of strength. Most stocks cannot be gained when the market is up, by then it will be too late. So long, see tomorrow STI go down to 2380?

Sunday, January 15, 2006

STI - Seeing its FUTURE Today!

Reporting what‘s happening is easy. Anticipating what’s coming is the reverse! Let’s make an attempt to analyze the STI and formulate the likely outcome. Using the usual Scenario 1-2-3, the Chart and Table inset paint a thousand words! This hypothesis expects whipsaws and is not infallible, but it just provides an educated plan with a good probability of success. There are many reasons and rationales in the actions to be taken, but I think it’s too lengthy to explain now. So we shall go along with it first and does the explanation some other time as the events unwind. On the stock wise, I still maintain my near term movers as Tech : Charted, StatChipac, MMI, Huan Hsian, Jur Tech and UTAC; China Play: Beauty China, China Wheel and Cosco; Bank: OCBC. So long! Got to help the Mistress of the House to clear the house for CNY before she threatens divorce again!

Friday, January 13, 2006

StatChipPac (S24) - The Ugly Stock That I Love to Buy!

All indicators are bad. You name it: RSI, Stochastic,William’s R%, Acc/Distrn, OBV, ROC & etc. ADX and D-v up in concert, showing downtrend and still going down. MACD –ve crossed and dropping. Also a bearish inverted head and shoulder was formed. Then what is the rational to buy now?
I like the oversold condition. This is confirmed by the CCI (3)-195. Further, everyone know that buying stock that is oversold reduces downside risk You can notice the Gap(1) down today kissed the lower end of the Bollinger Band, which normally acted as a support.. Actually when stock dipped on very heavy volume it is dangerously bearish omen. But the open interest today also interested me. We know that the open was 1.03 and closed at 1.05. That cannot be bearish!  To me, today's selling with high price down was overreacting. Fundamentally, news of Placement could be the cause. As if in agreement with my hunch, Morgan Stanley is calling a Buy with TP of 1.35. This is not to say that  I believe Analyst report but its report surely influences the short term emotion of Singapore Trader. So, this got to be factored in, especially short term wise. To conclude, I’m not apprehensive about buying this stock against the trend and the principle of TA as from experience the “low hanging fruit” must be plucked by the “early bird” with gut. You may have interest in previous Posting on 30 Dec 2005
P/s AlreaDy got wind that Result to be reported on the 26 Jan is good!

SPH - UOB Kay Hian Report

Thursday, January 12, 2006

STI - Today

Today profiting-taking day across the board!. A shrewd investor will definitely more concern now on the general market direction. The chart for STI didn’t look good at all. Based on a normal cycle period of Singapore which last for 3 to 5 days, it would appear that the selling heat shall continue for awhile. Also see the STI Intraday on this Blog's top right column which exhibited an ending down trend unable to lift up at last minute. This could mean a "spill over" of the bearish mood tomorrow!. Hmmm.. 11.27 points dropped on high volume of 1.299bil – that is no good. The Candlestick also confirmed a bleak short term. A shooting star followed by 2 crows!!  All the fearful things happened: RSI down across 50 mark, CCI screamed Overbought and ADX bent down against the 40 line! Of course the main trend is still intact, short term looks bad! I shall leave the support and resistance to you to figure out and spend more time to prepare for tomorrow’s plan: to take crucial action to protect my profit/capital if deemed fit!

China Wheel (E94) - A Gem that turned to Wheel of Fortune

Since my last calling (E94) it a GEM and alerted its opportunity on the 3 Jan 06, another breakdown has occurred today. Looking at the Chart, I can safely say that no one can find fault with it. Why? It’s very beautiful and prefect, all indicators included. OBV flied rocket high and I like so much the ADX at 30. White Candle was dormant, decisive and aggressively pointing upwards. Further there is a Single Bottom so nicely formed. Theoretically based on TA principal, Target Price of 0.40 can be achieved. This is calculated with depth of the trough reversed upwards. Probability of continuation of today’s uptrend is very high based on this breakout with the Big White Candle,having exceptionally high volume (16.8 mil Vs 3 mil of the average 10 periods) and all indicators supporting its robustness. Fundamentally, dealings of Nissan , the booming of Car Manufacturing in China and a very solid balance sheet, nothing could go wrong, right?. Sure, but there is a threat if Aluminum price goes up!You may have interest in last Posting on Jan3 2006

Tuesday, January 10, 2006

Cosco (C21) Updated, Analysis and My trade!

Let’s update Cosco. From Chart 1, I’ve mentioned buy 1 and buy 2 (see below) in my previous posts. The rational and the TPs are self explanatory. Before that, let’s prioritizes our focus. Basically, we would have to lean more to Volume and the Trend line (Western Tools). Of course, not forgetting our CandleStick in the East. From my scrutiny, it would appear that the main Trend line is healthy and bullish. So the previous “corrective” bouts had not tampered its “impulsive” action. Meaning the trend is Bullish! As usual the tell tale sign cannot escaped my eyes. We can see the stock was going up in an unnatural sense. See what? Price up and volume down progressively. This demonstrated a lack of quality volume since price was moving up (effect) without real volume (cause) –the moves were not real (see Chart 2). So now let's see what our Jap’s Candlestick has to say! Wonderful: a  kind of like a “3 White Soldiers”. That is Bullish. The battle of the West and East has started! So how? Let’s analyze further. The current resistance of aprox 2.43 has been tested 7 times!  And our current price just kisses 100 Day MA. OBV and RSI look fine. CCI still steady at 149. Though in Overbought zone ,I consider it’s threatening only when it bent down and cut across the 100 mark.. ADX down on the cooling of the previous Downtrend; with still D positively placed. Volume suggested reversal and Candlesticks said No! The rest is up to your imagination. I bang on the current “Hot –up” of China Stock and do my own projection as in Chart (1). Of course, Ears on Ground and Eyes on Screen to effect action and implement it when situation so called for!
You may have interest in Buy 1, 21 Dec 2005
and also Buy 2, on 3 Jan 2006

Monday, January 09, 2006

Chartered (S27) Updated as Requested

Today has been good for me. Many stocks which we used to discuss in this blog had rallied. For example, Fuyu, Beauty China, Hsin Hian, MMI, UTAC, China Wheel,Nera Comm.& ETC The laggards are SPH, Chartered, and Sing Tel.
Many readers had informed me of their concern on Chartered, so let’s analyze Chartered again. I‘ve look at the chart and confirmed that the overall trend is still bullish. OBv still look pretty strong and upholding. The Candlestick had exhibited a look alike “Bullish Harima” and I like the volume sync with low price increase. I must admit that CCI looks dangerous though as it had curled down across the 100 mark. This confirmed Overbought which was in concert with the Stochastic. RSI still looked comfortable. I believe money has to be earned. Therefore it requires Patience, Tact and Gut to make a Profit. Let’s look at my last Posting on the Jan 4 2006.
It can go both ways Up (2A) or Down (3). With much good reports on Chartered, targeted at $1.60 and with the current Tech Sector still in favor, I shall not part this stock at this time!

Friday, January 06, 2006

SPH (T39) - Accumulating time!

Today is accumulating day for SPH. A lot of wise guys are doing it now as kissing MA 15Day has got a lot of upside. However, from the Ascending Wedge, we know that there was diminishing buyer pressure at $4.38. The Candle Stick also portrayed Bearish rejection at 3 points on the resistance. But with the D+ just crossed above D- and seeing that today’s profit taking has not affected on this sexy darling, it is a matter of time, volume shall increase and “fly” is the future word! So Pile up now?

You may have interest in SPH Evolution on 22 Dec 2005
and also on 11 Dec 2005

Nera TeleComm (N01) Updated as Requested

Since my last Posting on the 22 Dec 2005, the situation has been totally reversed. The Double Top within the Triangle and the Dead Cross had not happened and instead the dangerous position was pulled back and rallied.
Let’s do a post mortem.  The 22nd instant low point (2) was having a lower low relative to (1). What caught my eyes was the Volume of (1) was doubled than of (2).  This was suggesting that down force was weakening. You can also see from the chart that the next day’s volume was a dried up. Thus, all these would inevitably form a perfect launching pad for the 27th Dec rally. Since then the columns of volume were very steep and this magnified its aggressiveness and sustainability.
Today as expected, the usual Friday, profit-taking day for those stocks that have been up this week. Nera Com dropped 1 cent (49 cents) on lower volume (1.068Mil) should be taken as a healthy breather. Since Nera is cash rich, this stock should have the potential to ripe profit on longer term.
The key question here is the short term overbought? So let’s see! The Black Candle can be down played by the CCI still though above 100 level; has not go under it. As if in agreement, the stochastic trend is still upward, suggesting similar story of the “still safe” environment.
Based on the last preceding high against the Sept last year low, your last puff (short term TP before correction) shall be approx 1.618 Retractment equal to 52 cents. The support line stands at 46.5 cents

Thursday, January 05, 2006

OCBC (O39) updated

OCBC currently exhibited a beautiful chart. I like the clinging of the upper Bolinger Band and its MACD signals opened with aggressiveness in the Bullish Zone. No hiccup on the envelopes that sloped upwards evenly. The Momentum and ADX chart were perfect conditions to induce a buying spree. Certainly, no cause for worry of Overbought as long as the CCI that curl downwards is still above the 100 mark. Among the banks, OCBC still look a reasonable value to get in. Also bear in mind, in the air, the next rotational play shall be the Bank!

Chartered USA (CHRT) Rally

Dow + 32.74 & Nadaq + 19.72

Wednesday, January 04, 2006

Chartered C27 - No Pain, No Gain!

Chartered (C27) has become a very interesting play! It’s certainly not for those who are fearful of height. Two interesting factors to consider when wanted to enter the trade at this time. Is it overbought; meaning, it is considered overextended, or will the trend reverse soon or dead on Entry (DOE)?
Since my last posting -hypothesis a 1-2-3 scenario, it would appear that (2A) can be realized. Then, any evidence to warrant its proceeding?
Let me answer the later part first. If we have a close look, at Chart 1, we can see, a Rising Wedge formed.  Borrowed principle from Elliot Wave, we must ascertain whether, this newly formed Wedge is "impulsive (continue the Main trend)" or "corrective (small movement counter to the trend)" to evaluate its Bullishness or otherwise. In essense, the lower trend line (Red Arrow) rises at a steeper slope than the upper trend line(Green Arrow) and these two lines converge as price extends –the point is that the higher high is not keeping pace with the higher low; this reflects diminishing buying pressure at higher levels.  To me, confirmation of a Bearish Connotation’s prerequisite is low volume accompanying this type of wedge. But luckily, we have relatively high volume and the last high is still higher than the previous high (the High before Wedge was formed). So the bet is off! Why? Because only low volume can reflect a lack of conviction in the advance and increases the chance of  the unwanted but successful bearish reversal!
Then come to the first part: I used the CCI (Chart 2) again to confirm it is overbought or not. And it’s NOT! In support, the OBV is rising strongly against its bottom trend line. Further, I love sexy ADX at 20 somethings and still rising. It means the trend is not only young and upcoming but most importantly upthrusting with strength. Also, MACD signals positively crossed and the MACDH envelopes are forming a Young and Vigorous slope upward. I must be faired also to mention that the Doji at this height can be dangerous too!
In sum, this is for the Brave Heart, Strong Hand and Serene Mind! Target at $1.49 (100% retracement) and Cut loss at 1.31 the middle of the white supporting Candle. Like they say “No Pain no Gain”, right?
N/B No document/material here is a solicitation to buy or sell. You are advised to think carefully and take your own responsibility for all consequences

Chartered (C27) Merrill Lynch Report

SINGAPORE (XFN-ASIA) - Merrill Lynch said it has raised its fair value
Chartered Semiconductor to 1.60 sgd from 1.19 sgd as it expects the
to provide better returns this year because of improving revenue and      
      "We raise Chartered's 2006 return on invested capital forecast
from 5
pct to 8 pct on slightly higher margin assumptions, but still expect      
returns to average 10 pct in 2007," Merrill Lynch analyst Dan Heyler
in a note.                                                                
      "Chartered's profitability should continue to steadily improve in    
2006. A well thought-out recovery strategy, which has been in place
over two years, is likely to show important operational and financial      
milestones in 2006," Heyler said.                                          
      "We believe profitability is rising on its mature capacity, while
improved technology road map is attracting new customers that will        
generate economies of scale on 300 millimeter [platform]," he added.      
      While the market in general expects Chartered's revenues to
5-10 pct in the first quarter from the fourth quarter, Heyler said
expectations may prove conservative.                                      
      "We believe 200 millimeter could show growth in the first
while 300 millimeter should be flat, given strong Xbox 360
loading," Heyler said, adding that overall Chartered's revenue in the      
first quarter should be sequentially flat to down 5.0 pct.                
      For the whole of 2006, Merrill Lynch expects Chartered to post a
profit of 153.90 mln usd, reversing the estimated net loss of 169 mln
for 2005. Net profit should grow further to 234.54 mln usd in 2007, it    
      At 11.11 am, Chartered was up 0.03 sgd or 1.02 pct at 2.98, with
mln shares traded.                          

Tuesday, January 03, 2006

Cosco (C21) - It's Average up Time!

High Volume, MACD and Stochastic best entry point!

China Wheel (E94) Gem Spotted

China Wheel (E94) depicted a so beautiful chart today. To me is a breakout off the Trend Line! The MACD was perfect for entry with + ve crossed in below Equilibrium. Meaning a good upside room can be expected. In tandem, the D+ve just Crossed above D-ve. I like to use CCI to confirm the Overbought State. It is now showing a cut above the -100 and towards the 100 zone – an ideal call for a Buy!  A target price of 0.375 (near 61.8 retracement) should be aimed for. But it has to clear the 1st level of resistance at .330.

STI - Today - What a Beautiful Day

All up. You name it : Blue Chips, Red Chips and Penny Stock, Tech Stock!!
STI closed 2,369 up 22.03 point. Heavy volume = 1,047,182,410 , Gainers 467 against Losers 124.
ST Index breakout from the 1 and a half month triangular consolidation. As long as 2337 holds further advance 2430 -2450 can be envisaged. If not, long position not encouraged. Oil and Gas looks good with our Vodka friend killed crude oil supply.
If Rally continues ,make sure money is enough to ride on it!!!!

Sunday, January 01, 2006

It's 2006 ! Happy New Year

MY Email : Smartyinvestor@Gmail.com

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