Wednesday, January 04, 2006

Chartered C27 - No Pain, No Gain!



Chartered (C27) has become a very interesting play! It’s certainly not for those who are fearful of height. Two interesting factors to consider when wanted to enter the trade at this time. Is it overbought; meaning, it is considered overextended, or will the trend reverse soon or dead on Entry (DOE)?
Since my last posting -hypothesis a 1-2-3 scenario, it would appear that (2A) can be realized. Then, any evidence to warrant its proceeding?
Let me answer the later part first. If we have a close look, at Chart 1, we can see, a Rising Wedge formed.  Borrowed principle from Elliot Wave, we must ascertain whether, this newly formed Wedge is "impulsive (continue the Main trend)" or "corrective (small movement counter to the trend)" to evaluate its Bullishness or otherwise. In essense, the lower trend line (Red Arrow) rises at a steeper slope than the upper trend line(Green Arrow) and these two lines converge as price extends –the point is that the higher high is not keeping pace with the higher low; this reflects diminishing buying pressure at higher levels.  To me, confirmation of a Bearish Connotation’s prerequisite is low volume accompanying this type of wedge. But luckily, we have relatively high volume and the last high is still higher than the previous high (the High before Wedge was formed). So the bet is off! Why? Because only low volume can reflect a lack of conviction in the advance and increases the chance of  the unwanted but successful bearish reversal!
Then come to the first part: I used the CCI (Chart 2) again to confirm it is overbought or not. And it’s NOT! In support, the OBV is rising strongly against its bottom trend line. Further, I love sexy ADX at 20 somethings and still rising. It means the trend is not only young and upcoming but most importantly upthrusting with strength. Also, MACD signals positively crossed and the MACDH envelopes are forming a Young and Vigorous slope upward. I must be faired also to mention that the Doji at this height can be dangerous too!
In sum, this is for the Brave Heart, Strong Hand and Serene Mind! Target at $1.49 (100% retracement) and Cut loss at 1.31 the middle of the white supporting Candle. Like they say “No Pain no Gain”, right?
N/B No document/material here is a solicitation to buy or sell. You are advised to think carefully and take your own responsibility for all consequences

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