Saturday, December 17, 2005

HuanHsin (H16) - A Gold Mine or a Land Mine?


It is imperative that to judge the captioned above, one must understand as to what phase, the price action is now and resonant it with mid/long term outlook; so as not to be discouraged by occasional clusters! Without the understanding of this, just saying “will go up or down”, sees, that’s gambling not trading!
Longwinded, let me hold your hand and walk through this “Do or Die” mine! With a Candle in hand, we can see that a dominant black candle against its opposite color predecessor. A sign of exchanging camps – Bear has taken over.
In rhythm to this sudden mishap, RSI, Stochastic, Williams’ % R, ROC, and Momentum conspired its downfalls. Very OverBought, right?  Sure, just look at the Bollinger Band, RSI, Stochastic, MACD signal lines’ position in the +ve territory, who need more evidences?
On the more neutral perspective, ADX still maintain its vertical image, but maybe of slight concern now, as 51 seems dangerous in comparison to its previous downfall of 56 in early Nov in current year. Huh, huh, surely we can see the tussle between the top D +ve (Blue) and bottom D-ve (Red)! You tell me, between the Red Devil and the Deep Blue Sea, who will win? I enjoy watching these 2 lovely birds, the Accumulation/Distribution and OBV, in this instant, friendly they tipped down in perfect sync. How dangerously can they be,unless further proven, right?
On the brighter side, you will notice a choreographically MACDH and Volume sync with the Price since this month; this is very significant. Meaning Trend is still up and bull is still in control. How to see?  In particular, you can catch the past 2 preceding MACDH and Volume bars’ performance.  Price rise on high MACDH/Volume and pullback on low MACD/ Volume.
So, so, one black swallow (black candlestick) does not make a summer right? Then, let go to the risk/reward evaluation!  Just my thinking aloud: the risk high? Not even 35% retractment since early this year at $1.13. Of course there is danger in overbought stock, but overbought can be overbought for though not in infinite time but for long enough to churn profit. Upside is still untapped as from its 200MA, still below it by 8.1%.
Enough been said, between the “Promise of Rose Garden” and the “Baby Caretaker”, would you like to stretch your luck?

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