Wednesday, December 14, 2005

NOL (N03) as requested


NOL already pierced through its trend line on 5 Dec 2005 with a Gap (Ang Mo), Japanese called it “Window” – “same same!”. After that the Candlesticks revealed unstable phenomena. The next day after the Gap we see the most Dominant Black Candle and almost “Shaven” –Marubozu Candle with high volume. This would mean bearish at its worst! Subsequently a small white candle within the frame of its preceding Black Candle, the so called Bullish Harami and that is good; the bull had won. Then again, a Dark Cloud shadowed its preceding white candle: and that’s no good. And then Doji X 2. These smell indecisiveness. The implication is that too many Dojis shall jeopardize upward movement against its resistance .Without looking at other indicators we can safely say now that inactiveness will ensue! Unless new impetus surface, sideways consolidation or down trend would be the likely outcome.
So full stop? Of course no!, I wish trading life can be that straightforward!. So let’s proceed to dig more insight so as to confirm the above hypothesis.
Let me throw a net of EMA 8 days & 13 days to detect whether N03 is in the Dead Cross Zone. The result tells us that it is not. This reflects that instant downward curl is not coming soon.
RSI (5 days) has a small double bottom whipsaw and terminated flat at 68. Williams % R (14 days) danced gracefully in concert with RSI depicting similar pattern but at -32. So what does these mean? Simple, above hypothesis confirmed!
We can use ROC and ADX to gauge the strength of the future trend. Both confirmed that trendy movement cannot be expected in near term. See, the D+ve came down fiercely although still managed to stay above D-ve!. Luckily ADX, confirmed by its smothering counterpart ADXR still almost vertically erected to defend its downfall.
Stochastic seemed unfavorably crossed and most recent MACD envelope slope down against its preceding one. In the absence of fresh evidence, this is bearish, even though the MACD both signals are still signaling a bullish stand. No wonder, chart pattern cannot decide for us. Let me bring to your notice, the MACD Peak and Trough. Surely you can see the Peak’s height is greater than the Trough. This would mean that bulls ‘strength is still superior to the bear.
Accumulation/Distribution looks OK with OBV wriggly neutral. Volume mild in comparison with recent 10 periods: 2.7 mil Vs 4.3 mil
Fundamentally, NOL’s unnatural Gap (Dec 5) has to be covered. The Market became enthusiastic about the promise of special dividend payment then. After Xd, the price of the share often falls dramatically.  From experience, many Xd Gap recover with 5 to 7 sessions if the share is still in uptrending. I bring this out because the current price is factored in all these, but actually its realistic value is only $3.00. I bet, you got to believe me, Price has got Memory, you know!
In sum, $3.40 resistance which is top of the Bald Head Black Candle (Dec 8) is a tough nut to crack! Why? unnatural Gap has its latent effect of buying over priced still  fresh in most traders’ mind.  Unless the Trend  Line broken at near  $3.10, NOL would be tamed in near term!
I don't like to be ambiguous, but if $3.40 resistance happens to be hammered through, I can't rule out it will "cheong" to $3.80 (recent top) and beyond, since the trend is still up now!. I think those vested need a lot of Lucks so as to "Huat" in this way!

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