Chuan Hup Analysis

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Extract from my view on ChannelNewsAsia Forum:
ongsmartJoined: 04 Jun 2005Posts: 39
Posted: Mon Oct 17, 2005 12:03 am Post subject:

May I offer my opinion: After annoucement on Aug 1 2005 of the special dividend, the market responded by spiking from 86 cents to 94.5 cents on the next day. Since then the market dropped to 89.5 cent last Friday. The key here is that nobody can predict market sentiment accurately. Based on experience with Singapore market, after XD, the market will return to 86 cents. So, you definitely have to do your sum accurately and time your exit before or after XD, because only you know what price you have previously entered. For those who still cannot get away form Technical Analysis, I have it in my blog: http://ongsmart.blogspot.com/ But I would not use Technical Indicators as we have now a situation of market Sentiment , which can be very irrational as in the case of our recent SPH and STX. So be very careful!!

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Posted: Mon Oct 17, 2005 1:31 pm Post subject:

To CYWong:
Sorry, didn't made myself clear. There are many stages by stages envisaged: On the 19 Oct (prior Xd), on 20 instant (XD day) and final stage leading to special dividend. The 86 cents is after XD day. Then price oscilates in anticipation of the 44 cents special dividends. Surely after getting the 44cents, how can the price be 86cents!!! Key consideration is to observe what will the company be after issused 44 cents and with no core competence, can the company sustain same yield after that!! Many thanks

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